How to Predict the Oscars
UCLA Research Reveals the Top 3 Factors for Academy Award Winners
Jan 23, 2008
Knowing how to predict Oscar winners is a science! This UCLA study reveals that Oscar nominations and Academy Award winners don’t depend on a performer's talent alone. Other factors, such as the subject matter of the film and number of films screened, are weight factors in predicting Oscar winners and forecasting Academy Award nominations.
Researchers Gabriel Rossman and Nicole Esparza analyzed the Internet Movie Database to predict Academy Award nominations. They looked at all the Oscar-eligible films from 1927 to 2005 to predict future Oscar winners.
The 3 Strongest Predictors for Academy Award Nominations
- Serious subject matter. In their analysis of Academy Award winners, Rossman and Esparza found that actors in serious films or dramas are nine times more likely to receive an Oscar than those in comedies. So, to predict the Oscars, get serious.
- Number of films in the year. The second strongest predictor for Academy Award nominations or Oscar winners was the number of films in a given year. “It’s better to be nominated in a year where fewer films are screened, because there’s less competition come awards time,” says Rossman.
- Performer’s gender. Actresses are more than twice as likely to be nominated for an Oscar as actors. It’s simple math, according to these UCLA researchers. There is the same number of Oscars for actors and actresses but there are fewer actresses in movies. Thus, there are fewer women to choose from when making a nomination for an Academy Award – which improves an actresses’ chances of winning an Oscar.
“It’s surprising how many variables other than a performer’s talent play a role in determining who gets nominated,” says Nicole Esparza, lead author of this UCLA study. “A performer’s odds of being nominated are largely set before the cameras even start rolling, back when the script was bought, the director was signed, and the film was cast.”
Two More Ways to Predict Oscar Winners or Academy Award Nominations
- Past movie credits. The better a performer’s ranking in past films, the more likely he’ll be nominated for an Oscar. “Just as the rich tend to get richer and popular web sites get even more traffic, so do honors seem to pile unto those who have already been honored, be they scientists or movie stars,” says Esparza.
- Appearing with past Oscar winners. A performer’s chance of receiving an Academy Award nomination is increased when she’s in a film with past Oscar winners. This is a mixed blessing, though. Performing with past Academy Award winners improved the chances of winning a supporting role, but not as a lead performer.
However, the old adage “it’s not what you know, it’s who you know” did NOT prove to be true when it comes to Oscar nominations.
“Conventional wisdom holds that it’s not what you do but who you know,” Esparza said. “And Hollywood may be no different, except when it comes to Academy Award nominations. Surprisingly, who you know doesn’t make or break you at nomination time.”
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Source: University of California - Los Angeles (2008, January 22). Strongest Predictors For Oscar Nominations Revealed. ScienceDaily.
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